The situation is constantly changing.
So far, we are aware of 12 people who were picked up in Hull on 2nd May. They are in detention, and have very limited access to the outside world. In most cases their own phones have been taken, and they have been issued with new basic phones. They may be held for months. We have been able to contact two of them, in detention at Heathrow and Colnbrook.
It is clear that, at worst, only a tiny majority of asylum seekers – a few hundreds, out of tens of thousands may be deported. But it is equally possible that no one may be deported.
Who could potentially be sent to Rwanda?
- Anyone without a visa who claimed asylum after 2022, and
- Came on a “dangerous journey” which passed through another country (eg in Europe) where they could have claimed asylum, and
- Has not had an interview or questionnaire and has not had a decision on their claim.
There are 3 exceptions within this group: The HO will not deport:
- Children, or family members, of children in the UK
- Where there is a risk of serious and irreversible harm: the obvious example is a serious medical condition, or disability.
- Rwandan nationals
Estimates of those potentially at risk vary from 50,000 to 25,000 asylum seekers; the vast majority of these are those who have arrived after 2023.
In practice, there is very limited capacity to send anyone to Rwanda:
- Rwanda has said it could only take at most 2,000 asylum seekers in the first year.
- No airline has yet (publicly) agreed to fly asylum seekers to Rwanda: Airtankers has been identified as a possible candidate
- Those deported must first be detained: the detention centres are already full and bursting.
The government are deliberately spreading as much alarm and distress as possible: the whole purpose of the Rwanda exercise is to act as a deterrent to future asylum seekers. So the government is sending out Notices of Intent – to remove many more people than they can actually send. Even then, it is still a tiny proportion of the whole group at risk. They have tried to identify and serve Notices on a small group of 6,000 or so within the 50,000, who they can find and detain.
The Process: 3 separate stages
- HO serves a Notice of Intent to deport
Those detained are likely to be served with a Notice of Intent shortly.
- The HO takes a Decision to Deport
There is a limited opportunity to make individual representation based on the exemptions above
- Detention before deportation; but most are already in detention.
Legal Challenges
The major legal challenges will be lodged shortly as the process of deportations starts. These claims will be brought by specialist Human Rights lawyers. The challenge is that the Rwanda Act 2024 (which has just come into force) is unconstitutional because it declares Rwanda to be a “safe” challenge, when that is untrue, and for the courts to decide. It is unclear whether the courts will stop all deportation flights in the meantime till they have ruled on this issue. It is possible all deportations will be stopped anyway.
Othe individual challenges will be very difficult, unless they fall within the 3 exceptions, above.
It may be possible for individuals, selected by the HO for deportation, to be joined to the major legal challenges, above, in which case at least their deportations may be stopped.
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And the Rwanda bill – and deportations to Rwanda – are all likely to be repealed and stopped after the general election, later this year.
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What you can do:
The large Refugee and Asylum Seeker organisations are all releasing fact sheet and blogs with the latest developments:
JCWI: jcwi.org.uk
Refugee Council: https://www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/
Greater Manchester Immigration Aid Unit: gmiau.org.uk
Right to Remain: righttoremain.org.uk
Kind UK: kidsinneedofdefense.org.uk
These have petitions to sign and contacts for more information and action
Welcome House is
Contacting the local MPs
Convening a meeting of local refugee and asylum seeker organisation to exchange information and coordinate local action.
Providing contact and support for those individuals detained, where we can do so.